The scenario for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 Final is getting interesting day by day. Three teams are in contention for the ICC WTC 2025 Final with South Africa (SA) leading the chart at the moment. India and Australia are the other two teams fighting for the other spot with Sri Lanka still having an outside chance. Today, we will see all the scenarios for the WTC 2025 final for India, South Africa, and Australia. We will also see where other teams are standing at the moment. So let’s dive into it quickly.
South Africa inch closer to the WTC 2025 Final
South Africa is currently at the top of the WTC 2025 points table. They have won 6 games and lost 3 in this WTC cycle with one game ending in a draw. With 63.330 PCT, they are leading the chart and getting closer to the WTC 2025 Final.
SA has played a 2-match test series at home against India, which ended in a draw (1-1). They then sent a very inexperienced 2nd string team to New Zealand and lost 0-2 (2-match series). After that, they started to peak at the right time and won a series against West Indies (WI) 1-0 (2-match series). One game ended in a draw due to consistent rain throughout the match.
SA came to the Asian territory with the expectation of getting some turning wickets. They have done well in Bangladesh and won the 2-match series 2-0. Recently, they clean-swept Sri Lanka 2-0 at home.
Qualification scenario for SA for the WTC 2025 Final
SA is just one win away from reaching the WTC 2025 Final. They have a 2-match series at home against Pakistan. If they manage to win one game, they will be through to the WTC 2025 Final.
Let us now see the other scenarios for South Africa
(1) If both the tests in SA vs PAK ended in a draw
South Africa would finish with a score of 58.33 if both Tests ended in a draw. Both Australia (60.53) and India (58.77) can surpass that threshold if India beats Australia 3-2 and Australia wins both Test matches in Sri Lanka.
(2) If SA loses the series 1-0
South Africa would need to hope that Australia wins no more than two of their remaining five Test matches or that India wins and draws the final three Test matches in Australia.
India finding it hard to make a hat-trick of WTC Finals
Team India has played the first two WTC Finals but couldn’t cross the line. They lost to NZ and AUS in the WTC 2021 and 2023 finals respectively.
India was looking good to reach their 3rd WTC final until NZ came to India and thrashed the home team 3-0 in the series.
Now, if India wanted to play the WTC 2025 final without depending on other results, they would have to win the BGT 2024-25 4-1. The series is already 1-1, which means India has to win all three remaining games in the series.
Other qualification scenarios for India
(1) If India wins 3-1
In that case, they can play the final as it would help them to reach 60.53 PCT. Australia can only finish with a maximum of 57.02 PCT even if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
(2) If India wins 3-2
In that case, they would hope that Sri Lanka doesn’t lose more than one game against Australia.
(3) If India loses 2-3 in BGT
India would finish at 53.51 if they lost 2-3. It allows South Africa, Australia, and Sri Lanka to overtake them. They would need South Africa to lose both Test matches against Pakistan and hope that Australia receives at least a draw in Sri Lanka in order for them to qualify with that score.
Australia – A strong contender for the WTC Final spot
Australia looked a strong candidate to take that WTC 2025 final spot along with South Africa. They just need 2 wins out of their remaining 5 games against India and Sri Lanka. If they win the BGT 3-2, they can qualify for the final even if they lose both the tests in SL. In that case, they will finish with 55.26, higher than India and Sri Lanka.
Other qualification scenarios for AUS
(1) If AUS loses BGT 2-3
In that case, AUS needs to win both tests in SL to make it to the WTC final 2025. If not, they would hope that South Africa only draws with Pakistan once, leaving them at 55.56. Australia may surpass that with a victory and a draw in Sri Lanka.
PAK is mathematically still in, but highly unlikely
South Africa must also lose an over-rate point for Pakistan to have a mathematical chance. Even if they win all four of their remaining games, Pakistan would finish with 52.38 points, slightly less than South Africa’s 52.78.
Sri Lanka has an outside chance to reach the WTC final
Firstly, SL needs to win both the games at home against AUS. Still, they must depend on other teams’ results to qualify for the WTC 2025 final. SL needs AUS to win BGT 2-1 with 2 draws and SA to lose both the tests against PAK. In that case, SL and IND will play the final.
Conclusion
So these are the qualification scenarios for the teams to reach the WTC final. NZ has done no good to lose the two tests against England (ENG) at home. Otherwise, they could have reached the final as well. England, West Indies, and Bangladesh are already out of contention for the final spot. Let’s see who will play the WTC Final.
