Will Australia or Pakistan qualify for the CWC 2023 Semifinals?

CWC 2023 – With 23 games done in the ongoing ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023, six out of the ten teams are still in the running for qualification. India is leading the points table, closely followed by South Africa and New Zealand.

Not a single thriller in 23 games? Additionally, Tuesday’s match ended before halftime. It shows that despite the ongoing ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup, interest in the ODI format is still declining. 

Though there have been some thrilling matches and unexpected results. There have been three upsets that included two victories for Afghanistan—a thrilling match has yet to occur in this tournament. It is anticipated that when the semi-final race heats up, interest in the event and format as a whole will rise, and that team margin differences will fall as well.

Heavyweights Australia & Pakistan are in a tussle for the final spot for the final spot in the semifinals. But who among them will prevail?

Australia or Pakistan: Who will march towards the CWC 2023 Semifinals?

Australia achieved the highest-ever run victory in World Cup history on Wednesday at Arun Jaitley Stadium. They beat the Netherlands by 309 runs thanks to Glenn Maxwell’s masterclass in Delhi, David Warner’s incredible century, and Adam Zampa’s skill. 

With both bat and ball, the Australian team displayed great skills as they destroyed the Netherlands. At a Men’s Cricket World Cup, the winning margin of 309 runs is the biggest ever and the second greatest in ODI history.

Pakistan has played five games and won just two of them. Now they sit in fifth place with a negative run rate (-0.400). Pakistan’s next opponents include some formidable sides, including South Africa, New Zealand, and England. 

Bangladesh is another team that Pakistan will play. A team needs to win at least six games to get a spot in the semifinals. For Pakistan to do this, they must win all of their remaining games and hope that the other teams near the top of the table make costly mistakes.

As for Pakistan, their bowling was hailed as world-class before the Asia Cup. And when they held a strong India team to 266 all out in a washed-out game at Pallekele, news agency AFP said, analysts say is a serious message to the World Cup contenders.

Naseem Shah, a crucial fast bowler, is out of the squad due to a shoulder injury two weeks before the main event.

Pakistan still has time to recover. But it won’t be simple because their next tests will only be more difficult. Pakistan is no longer in control of its destiny.

Is it too late for Pakistan now?

Out of the five teams ranked worse, only Afghanistan are without a game. This makes Pakistan’s case even worse. The rising gap between Pakistan and the other teams is also not in their favour. 

Having won five of their past six games, India might already have enough points on the ten-point mark to qualify. The only thing standing in their way of qualifying would be the net run rate if they were to win one more. 

In addition, Pakistan would need to win in three of their final four games to surpass New Zealand’s current point total. Pakistan would have to win all of their games. They will also have to rely on net run rate to overtake New Zealand if they only won two of their final four games. After an easier first part of the draw, the Black Caps’ next opponents are Australia, South Africa, and Pakistan.

At this moment, Pakistan can only pick a max of 12. After five games, South Africa now has eight points after they beat Bangladesh by a huge margin yet again. Their incredible net run rate means that two more wins would put them ahead. Three wins from their rest four would put them beyond reach. 

They still have a huge final stretch of matches left. That includes a match against Afghanistan in their final group stage and matches against Pakistan, New Zealand, and India.

Our Take

For the fourth qualifying spot of CWC 2023, Pakistan would need to win two more than Australia to catch up. This is after the Dutch were beaten by a huge margin of 309 runs by Australia. Given Australia has yet to play Afghanistan or Bangladesh, Pakistan would have to hope they lose to both New Zealand and England for that to happen while winning all of their matches.

The equation would come down to the net run rate if Pakistan won every game and Australia lost just one. At present, Australia’s net run rate is higher. Pakistan can only overtake them for a fourth spot if they win all of their games by a significant margin.

In short, Pakistan’s best chance of qualifying will probably come from winning every game they play and hoping that higher-ranked opponents lose. They still have games against South Africa and New Zealand, so they can still deprive some of their rivals of points. Similarly, their current struggles make a fantastic run of form appear unlikely.

Our predicted CWC 2023 top 4- India, New Zealand, South Africa & Australia

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